PREDICTION OF SETTLEMENT AND LAND USE CHANGES ON MANSINAM ISLAND FROM 2025 TO 2031 USING THE CELLULAR AUTOMATA SIMULATION METHOD

https://doi.org/10.56139/intan.v8i2.337

Authors

  • Aldi Fariz Valderama Program Studi Teknik Pertambangan, Universitas Papua
  • Yulianto Taplo Universitas
  • Ardi Riansyah Program Studi Teknik Pertambangan, Universitas Papua
  • Syavitra L. P. Habibi Program Studi Teknik Pertambangan, Universitas Papua
  • Adi Frianda Siagian Program Studi Teknik Pertambangan, Universitas Papua
  • Taufik Syahrul Popoi Program Studi Teknik Pertambangan, Universitas Papua
  • Muh. Irwana Segara Nasir Program Studi Teknik Pertambangan, Universitas Papua
  • Amos Iba Program Studi Teknik Pertambangan, Universitas Papua
  • Karmila Laitupa Program Studi Teknik Pertambangan, Universitas Papua

Keywords:

infrastruktur, permukiman, prediksi spasial, sistem informasi geografis, pulau mansinam

Abstract

Indonesia, as an archipelagic country, faces development challenges on its small islands, including Mansinam Island. This study aims to predict settlement and land cover changes on Mansinam Island for the period 2025–2031. The data used were surface reflectance-corrected Sentinel-2 imagery with a spatial resolution of 10 meters. The imagery was acquired in 2019, 2022, and 2025. Land cover classification was performed using a supervised classification method with the minimum distance algorithm, achieving an accuracy of 87.82%. Land change prediction modeling was carried out through land use change analysis and simulation using the Cellular Automata (CA) and Artificial Neural Network-Cellular Automata (ANN-CA) models. The model produced a Percent of Correctness of 89.96%. The simulation results indicate that from 2025 to 2031 there will be no significant land change, with transformed land areas of 43.85 ha in 2025, 42.62 ha in 2028, and 42.64 ha in 2031. The results also show that the development rate on Mansinam Island tends to slow down.

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Published

2025-11-24

How to Cite

Valderama, A. F., Taplo, Y., Riansyah, A., Habibi, S. L. P., Siagian, A. F., Popoi, T. S., Nasir, M. I. S., Iba, A., & Laitupa, K. (2025). PREDICTION OF SETTLEMENT AND LAND USE CHANGES ON MANSINAM ISLAND FROM 2025 TO 2031 USING THE CELLULAR AUTOMATA SIMULATION METHOD. INTAN Jurnal Penelitian Tambang, 8(2), 81–88. https://doi.org/10.56139/intan.v8i2.337

Issue

Vol. 8 No. 2 (2025): INTAN: Jurnal Penelitian Tambang

Section

Articles
Copyright & Licensing

Copyright (c) 2025 Aldi Fariz Valderama, Yulianto Taplo, Ardi Riansyah, Syavitra L. P. Habibi, Adi Frianda Siagian, Taufik Syahrul Popoi, Muh. Irwana Segara Nasir, Amos Iba, Karmila Laitupa

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.